Lumen

Lumen

Eager to know more, about the world, about the intelligence, and about myself.
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Assorted links 1, 6.16.23

Miniflux feed#

Currently there is no successful example of the planned economics, no matter how perfect it is in theory, one conclusion is controlling economic from its root is still not within the reach of human capability.

This article discusses the nature and causes of China's high share of global manufacturing, which accounts for about 28% of its GDP and 31% of the world total of manufacturing value-added. The large manufacturing sector is due to both China's domestic demand and its success as an exporter. Around 40-45% of China's manufacturing output comes from exports, while 55-60% comes from domestic demand. However, China's manufacturing share of GDP has declined since around 2010, indicating that manufacturing value-added has grown more slowly than the rest of the economy.

China's share of global manufacturing has risen steadily, but the drivers have shifted over time. From 2000-2008, the increase was mainly due to export growth, while from 2008-2019, domestic value-added rose more significantly. The sustainability of China's pandemic-era export gains is uncertain, and the crucial factor for its manufacturing share is whether it can maintain high levels of investment that drive domestic demand for manufactured goods. The author suggests that the fading of the post-crisis investment boom may lead to a decline in China's manufacturing share.

从这篇文章提供的数据可以看出,我们在 2008 年之后的经济增长是比较虚胖的,更少的比例来自于制造业的驱动。我也赞同中国的制造业能否维持高度的增长这个问题,取决于有效的制造业投资,从现在的形式来看较为让人悲观。广大的中国总是还有一些产业在成功的产业升级,但相对于整体的人口数量而言,这份较小的增量就注定大部分的年轻人没办法享受一份高薪而又体面的工作。

在 Feed 里面可以同时看到公众号的文章以及在外网上各种博客的文章,可以清晰的感觉到文章商业化给人带来的疯狂。公众号的标题几乎片片都离不开 “炸裂”、“高能”、“杀手级”、“杀疯了”、“!” 等等 click-bite 的词。而各种博客,哪怕是 Microsoft 这些公司的博客,都会用比较正常的标题来向你描述内容。可能这就是微信公众号更改推送规则之后,各大公众号无奈之下的 “标题内卷” 吧。

另外一个有意思的观察是,很多的内容我会在头一天在英文博客上先看到,然后第二天或第三天在多个公众号上面看到对应的 “炸裂” 新闻。由于我的 Feed 大多是 AI 相关的,这样的新闻传播现实也一定程度上暗示了国内的 AI 产业还是一个跟随者的位置,即使我能看到来自于国内的研究所的很多优秀的论文。

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Fun stuff#

A picture I picked up today from telegram chat, which is a policy inside the game "Stellaris":

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